DPM

Criterion

Explanation

General Description

A stochastic simulation model to evaluate the impacts of water management actions and conservation measures on the survival of Chinook salmon smolts as they migrate through the Delta. The DPM simulates migration of Chinook salmon smolts entering the Delta from the Sacramento River, Mokelumne River, and San Joaquin River, and estimates survival through the Delta to Chipps Island.

Model Domain

The DPM is composed of eight reaches and four junctions selected to represent primary salmonid migration corridors where fish and hydrodynamic data were available. Smolts can enter the model in 3 separate locations: 1) immediately upstream of Fremont Weir on the Sacramento River (Sacramento runs), 2) the head of the North and South Forks of the Mokelumne River (Mokelumne Fall-run, and 3) immediately upstream of the head of Old River on the San Joaquin River (San Joaquin River fall-run). For simplification, Sutter Slough and Steamboat Slough are combined as the reach SS and the forks of the Mokelumne River and Georgiana Slough are combined as Geo/DCC. Th entire Interior Delta region is treated as a single model reach.

Developer

Cramer Fish Sciences

Hardware computing requirements

Windows operating system

Code language

GoldSim simulation software

Original application

The goal was to assimilate the best available data and statistical relationships of Delta Chinook salmon smolt survival to inform a simulation model that would allow users to evaluate how alternative management scenarios may affect survival of migrating Chinook salmon through the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. Model was initially developed to evaluate effects of scenarios in Bay Delta Conservation Plan (BDCP).

Public/proprietary and cost

Source code is available upon request but changing source code requires GoldSim license.

Physically or empirically based

Empirical

Mathematical methods used

Most parameters are drawn from distributions based on empirical data. Several parameters are functions of flow or exports; fitted to empirical data with linear and logistic regression.

GoldSim is a simulation framework for graphical system dynamics programming based on Monte Carlo simulation methods.

Input data requirements

CALSIM II and DSM2 HYDRO for mean daily exports and flows; Chinook Salmon catch data for run-specific Delta entry timing distributions

Outputs

The primary output is the overall survival of juvenile Chinook Salmon emigrating through the Delta in a year. However, the model can also produce finer-scale survival estimates (e.g., route-specific survival, daily time step). GoldSim software provides options to export results as Excel or text files.

Pre-processing and post-processing tools

No processing tools provided

Representation of uncertainty

Uncertainty is incorporated in most parameters and relationships; exceptions include junction routing and run-specific entry timing. All parameters and model coefficients are drawn from normal distributions except for Yolo Bypass travel time, which is drawn from a uniform distribution.

Prevalence

One peer-reviewed publication (https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-012-9306-6). Used in Bay Delta Conservation Plan/WaterFix and Sites Reservoir Project.  

Ease of use for public entities

Free GoldSim Player software allows anyone to changed selected settings, view model relationships, run the model, and explore results. Player version of the model is available upon request.

Ease of obtaining information and availability of technical support

No user group. No explicit commercial help desk but could contract with Cramer Fish Sciences for help with model.

Source code availability

Source code is available upon request; changing source code requires GoldSim license.

Status of model development

Not under active development. Work on the model is episodic and driven by external contracts.

Challenges for integration

The DPM is currently an example of an integrated model because it depends on outputs of CALSIM and DSM2 and the outputs of the DPM are used by the IOS model. The primary barrier to additional integration is that using the model requires a GoldSim license.