IOS

Criterion

Explanation

General Description

Stochastic life cycle simulation model for winter run Chinook Salmon in the Sacramento River. Model structure focuses on four key environmental drivers of salmon population dynamics: temperature, flow, exports, and ocean productivity.

Model Domain

Model broken into 4 physical regions: Keswick Dam to Red Bluff Diversion Dam in Sacramento River, Red Bluff Diversion Dam to the Delta in the Sacramento River, Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, and estuary/ocean.

Developer

Cramer Fish Sciences

Hardware computing requirements

Windows operating system

Code language

GoldSim simulation software

Original application

Developed with the goal of providing resource managers a quantitative tool to compare the relative impact of future water use activities on the winter-run population and to select relevant life stages and environmental variables to focus on for recovery actions.

Public/proprietary and cost

Source code is available upon request but changing source code requires GoldSim license.

Physically or empirically based

Empirical

Mathematical methods used

A few parameters are drawn from distributions based on empirical data. Several parameters are functions of temperature or ocean productivity; fitted to empirical data with linear regression and exponential or power functions. Ricker model used for juvenile recruitment.

GoldSim is a simulation framework for graphical system dynamics programming based on Monte Carlo simulation methods.

Input data requirements

CALSIM II and DSM2 HYDRO for mean daily exports and flows; DPM for Delta survival; mean daily temperature in the Sacramento River at Bend Bridge.

Outputs

The focal output is annual escapement, but it also produces annual values for egg survival, fry-to-smolt survival, smolt production, and RBDD to Delta survival. GoldSim software provides options to export results as Excel or text files.

Pre-processing and post-processing tools

No processing tools provided

Representation of uncertainty

Uncertainty is incorporated in most parameters and relationships; exceptions include spawning timing, sex ratio of returning adults, and pre-spawn mortality. All parameters and model coefficients are drawn from normal distributions except for a few ocean survival parameters, which are drawn from a uniform distribution.

Prevalence

One peer-reviewed publication (https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-012-9306-6). Used in Bay Delta Conservation Plan/WaterFix, Sites Reservoir Project, and OCAP BA.

Ease of use for public entities

Free GoldSim Player software allows anyone to changed selected settings, view model relationships, run the model, and explore results. Player version of the model is available upon request.

Ease of obtaining information and availability of technical support

No user group. No explicit commercial help desk but could contract with Cramer Fish Sciences for help with model.

Source code availability

Source code is available upon request; changing source code requires GoldSim license.

Status of model development

Not under active development. Work on the model is episodic and driven by external contracts.

Challenges for integration

The IOS model is currently an example of an integrated model because it depends on outputs of CALSIM, DSM2, and DPM. The primary barrier to additional integration is that using the model requires a GoldSim license.